Published in English Daily Pakistan Today.
Is Imran Khan going to prove the third political power on national political landscape? May be yes but, if we peep into the realities of electoral politics in Pakistan, the answer is nothing but a big no. I do not intend to hurt the feelings of anybody, but in my humble opinion, he isn't going to be the third political power, at least not in the coming elections. Popularity graphs do show him as one of the most popular leaders and a giant political figure, yet electoral politics has its realities.
Khan’s party doesn't posses competent candidates who have the ability to compete with the strong contenders of other political parties. He is not at all going to have seats more then Q league, MQM and ANP and may be MMA if it gets united. Analysing the political landscape and our national electoral system, one comes across the following harsh realities about khan’s political party. In rural Sindh, PPP will not let Khan win even a single seat, and in urban locale MQM will do the same.
In Balochistan, politics mostly revolves round tribal leaders and elders. There remains no space for the captain there.
In KP, Khan can perform a little better. However, there also ANP, PPP, JUI and JI would not let him play openly and would restrict him to few seats. If ANP and PPP, contest with seats adjustment then these seats may be squeezed even more.
Then there is Punjab, in South Punjab Khan's party seems to be in no position to perform well against strong heavy weights of PPP, N League and Q League. The expected seat adjustment between Q League and PPP is likely to minimise Khan’s chances even more.
In rest of the Punjab, PTI has visible power. But here it has to face the strong wrath of N League N League’s giant candidates armed with the popularity of Sharifs and confidence of home ground are ready to push PTI to the wall.
This scenario suggests that Khan is not going to be the third power in the next general elections. Therefore, while predicting the future of PTI, one should not be oblivious of the ground realities of Pakistani electoral landscape.
But the question whether he has bright chances in the future has an answer in yes. Yes, he can perform better if he leaves the politics of solo flight. He can have a good natural coalition with N League and the Likeminded group of the Q League. In such a coalition, both he and the League will benefit to a larger extent where he is likely to add to his seats, Sharifs would also be in a better position to face the wrath of PPP and Q League. It can be a win-win situation for the both. Otherwise, the sole beneficiary will be the PPP.
However, even then he isn't at all going to be the third political entity in Pakistani politics in the coming general elections.
TASSAWAR BOSAL
Khan’s party doesn't posses competent candidates who have the ability to compete with the strong contenders of other political parties. He is not at all going to have seats more then Q league, MQM and ANP and may be MMA if it gets united. Analysing the political landscape and our national electoral system, one comes across the following harsh realities about khan’s political party. In rural Sindh, PPP will not let Khan win even a single seat, and in urban locale MQM will do the same.
In Balochistan, politics mostly revolves round tribal leaders and elders. There remains no space for the captain there.
In KP, Khan can perform a little better. However, there also ANP, PPP, JUI and JI would not let him play openly and would restrict him to few seats. If ANP and PPP, contest with seats adjustment then these seats may be squeezed even more.
Then there is Punjab, in South Punjab Khan's party seems to be in no position to perform well against strong heavy weights of PPP, N League and Q League. The expected seat adjustment between Q League and PPP is likely to minimise Khan’s chances even more.
In rest of the Punjab, PTI has visible power. But here it has to face the strong wrath of N League N League’s giant candidates armed with the popularity of Sharifs and confidence of home ground are ready to push PTI to the wall.
This scenario suggests that Khan is not going to be the third power in the next general elections. Therefore, while predicting the future of PTI, one should not be oblivious of the ground realities of Pakistani electoral landscape.
But the question whether he has bright chances in the future has an answer in yes. Yes, he can perform better if he leaves the politics of solo flight. He can have a good natural coalition with N League and the Likeminded group of the Q League. In such a coalition, both he and the League will benefit to a larger extent where he is likely to add to his seats, Sharifs would also be in a better position to face the wrath of PPP and Q League. It can be a win-win situation for the both. Otherwise, the sole beneficiary will be the PPP.
However, even then he isn't at all going to be the third political entity in Pakistani politics in the coming general elections.
TASSAWAR BOSAL
Mandi Bahauddin
September 17, 2011.
http://epaper.pakistantoday.com.pk/E-Paper/Lahore/2011-09-17/page-11/detail-1
